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MapleRipple's

BETWEEN THE DEVIL AND THE DEEP BLUE SEA

 
 
 

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Look Right? Look Left?  

2011-02-21 07:42:42|  分类: life |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Counterintuitive Life - Tony Wong - MapleRipples
 

We've been taught since day 1 that arrows show the way we should go, and the way the traffic should be directed to. But in England, the land of poms, :-) there are two types of arrow. The first type is the normal one, which directs traffic flow. The second type, as shown in the picture, actually tells people which way vehicles are coming from, which, counterintuitively, mandates the opposite of traffic.

Lots of things aren't what they seem. Don't rely too much on your sixth sense. Don't care too much, cos sometimes, the more you care, the worse it gets. Similarly, lots in life are here-today, gone-tomorrow, been there, done that, it's enough, we should be happy to have a job, a wife, and a family.

One example of how counterintuitive life may be is the famous monty hall problem. In this problem, a guest is shown 3 doors, behind one of them, is a car; while behind each of the other 2 doors, is a goat. In quest for a car, the guest will be asked to pick a door, to open. After a door is picked, the host, who already know what are behind those doors, will open a door, which, is NOT the one been picked, but with a goat behind. With only two doors left, the host will then ask whether the guest is willing to switch to another door. The first flash in most people's minds are it doesn't help to switch, because with a door with a goat behind shown, the guest is left with 2 doors with the same possibility of having a car behind. Simply, fifty- fifty. So, most people would "stick to it". HOWEVER, IN THIS CASE, THE GUEST SHOULD SWITCH. BECAUSE THE CHANCE OF WINNING THE CAR WILL GO UP FROM 1/3 TO 2/3. The result is found stunning and convoluted by many I discussed this problem with.

Let me explain in more detail. Let's say the guest picks door 1. In the first case, as shown in the second row of the diagram below, a car is hidding behind door 1, the host, should thus open either door 2 or door 3 to show a goat, in this case, it's better to stay. In the second case, the guest picks door 1, the host then should open door 3 to show the goat. This time, switching yields better results. In the third case, the guest picks door 1 again, the host must open door 2, and it's better to switch. Overall, it's clear that switching bears better fruits.

 Door 1
 Door 2
 Door 3
 result if switcing
 result if staying
 Car Goat Goat Goat Car
 Goat Car Goat Car Goat
 Goat Goat Car Car Goat
   
So, once again, discretion is the better part of valor. Being careful isn't always that chicken-like. Life is counterintuitive quite too often, think before you leap, calculate. And if you can't, councel. Never be taken away by self-imposed self-obsession.
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